The world trade increased by 8% at the end of the second quarter 2009. This number is larger than the increase of GDP (5.8%) observed for the same period. This over reaction of trade as compared to GDP was already noticed at the end of 2008: the reduction of trade of 22% has also been more pronounced than the decrease of the world GDP (8%). The increase of protectionism has been considered as a possible explanation for this collapse of world trade. The over reaction of the increase of trade as compared to GDP questions this assumption. Indeed, an rise of protection may explain a collapse of trade, but a recovery cannot be followed by a raise of trade if the level of protection doesn’t change. Other factors may have contributed to the high volatility of trade these last months, as the credit access or the relative demand for high and low quality goods.

References
La Lettre du CEPII N°291 septembre 2009. Le commerce victime de la mondialisation ? Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yvan Decreux, Lionel Fontagné, David Khoudour-Castéras.