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EFN Economic Outlook
Spring Report 2004:
The Euro Area and the Acceding Countries |
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| The pick up in economic
activity observed in the US and Asia is not going to be shared by the Eurozone,
charachterized by a disappointing growth rate. Such a trend is expected to continue
in the next two years. The forecast published in the EFN Spring 2004 Report indicates
a very slow GDP growth of around 1.4% for this year and 2% for 2005, with sluggish
domestic demand acting as a major drag to expansion. On the inflation side weak
economic activity and the protracted strenght of the Euro are going to keep inflation
constantly below 2%. The situation appears much brighter for the Central and Eastern
European Countries which join the European Union on May 1st . Buoyant internal
demand is progressively replacing export as the main source of growth. However,
as explained in detail in the Report, most of these countries show potentially
dangerous structural problems, such as large and widening fiscal and current account
deficit and a banking sector which, despite considerable progresses, is still
fragile. |
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