|
| |
Economic Outlook for
the Euro Area in 2005 and 2006
Fall Report 2004 |
 |
| |
|
| Contact: |
|
| |
|
The upswing of the
world economy continues over the forecasting period, but at a lower rate. The
recent oil price hike has dampened economic activity. Fiscal stimuli in the US
have diminished, and China has already begun to take measures to cool down its
economy from overheating. Growth rates of world trade are expected to decline
slightly to about 7 percent, after 8.5 percent in 2004.
A rise of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and more cautious household spending
behaviour will stabilize the current account deficit in the US, and the euro will
not further appreciate against the US dollar. One euro will cost 1.28 dollars
in 2005, depreciating to 1.20 dollars in 2006, in line with purchasing power parity.
The recovery in the euro area lags behind the world business cycle, and the forecasts
have been revised downwards. GDP growth is expected to be at around 1.7 in 2005,
and will accelerate to 1.9 in 2006. Due to the appreciation of the euro and the
slowing upswing of the world economy, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth
is 0, and growth will be mainly driven by the evolution of consumption and investment... |
Report |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Le Blog du 
