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July-August 2007 |
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This is the IMF quota share that China could reap in 2030 if the present, complicated system of calculation was to be still in use at that time. This figure, which relies on long-run scenarios of growth, trade and capital flows designed by the CEPII, contrasts with the mere 3.72% quota share of China in 2007. In 2030, China would discuss on a quasi equal footing with the euro area as a group at the Executive board and at the Board of governors of the IMF. The share of the euro area would drop from its current aggregate level of 22.78%. A single Eurozone seat at the IMF would provide a co-ordination device for otherwise dispersed Eurozone voices, to be balanced against a 3-4 percentage point additional fall in the Eurozone's share (due to the removal of intra-zone flows in the calculation of the quota).
Last fall in Singapore, as part of the 13th quota review, an ad hoc increase of quotas was decided for four emerging countries – China, Korea, Mexico and Turkey – which were under-represented compared to their weights in the world economy. It was also decided to revise the formulas themselves during 2007 annual meetings or at the latest during Spring 2008 ones. This revision meets the needs for the Fund to strengthen its legitimacy which has been under attack in recent years. The new system is bound to be simpler and more transparent, and to better reflect the positions of the various member states in the world economy.
A simpler formula based on GDP and openness would probably limit the fall in the Eurozone's quota share in the long run. However this would not allow for emerging and especially low-income countries to be better represented. It has sometimes been suggested to introduce GDP in purchasing power parity in order to raise the quota share of these countries. However this suggestion is plagued with data problems and it also contradicts the fact that contributions to the Fund and assistance from it are indexed on current, not PPP exchange rates. In fact, the most efficient way of raising the share of low income countries would be to introduce population in the formula. This would be consistent with the fact that each human being suffers from a crisis. It would also be consistent with the declining role of the IMF as a provider of financial assistance and its subsequent quest for a new legitimacy as a world co-ordinator. |
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IMF Quota Shares
2007-2030 |
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Source : CEPII (2007)
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IMF: Ill-Tailored Quota
La Lettre du CEPII, N°268, June-July 2007 |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
IMF Quotas at Year 2030
CEPII Working Paper, n° 2007-12, July 2007 |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Sophie Béreau
Yvan Decreux
Christophe Gouel
Sandra Poncet |
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